Most advisors are not short of market commentary. What is harder to find is someone who takes all of it and turns it into a position.
The Monday Advisor does that once a week, in writing, with the reasoning attached. It arrives Monday before the open.
A clear view on direction and positioning.
For RIAs and wealth advisors
"Conditions support putting capital to work. Risk probabilities are improving."
Markets crashed. Macro didn't.
Six days after the panic low under SPX 4900, with the recovery not yet underway. Written into the drawdown rather than after it. The read did not change, because Macro had not. Model signals finished 2025 up 9.5%.
"I consume so much market and economic information already that general market commentary is not really something I'm missing. What's harder to find is someone taking all of that information and turning it into a clear view on market direction and positioning."Registered investment advisor, $1B AUM
The model
Macro leads price
The core claim is that SPX follows Macro, eventually. When the two diverge, the framework trusts the data and waits for price to catch up rather than the other way round.
Computed, not argued
The signal comes from the model rather than from an opinion about the week. That is what makes it possible to date a call in advance and be wrong in public.
It knows when to do nothing
The model sat in cash for four months in 2023 and still finished the year up 34.2%. Waiting is a position it takes deliberately, not a failure to act.
The Monday Advisor is derived from MarketModel, a rules-based system that reads macroeconomic data as a leading indicator for the S&P 500. The house shorthand for that reading is Macro, and it is the subject of every issue.
A macro framework, not a chart.
What arrives Monday
One email. The first half is free.
The macro summary
The advisor sections
The second half is the part that touches positioning.
The signal
Three states. No interpretation required.
The stoplight is an equity allocation read, not a trade call. It says where Macro is and how long it has been there.
Conditions support putting capital to work. Risk probabilities are improving.
Allocated, and in no hurry. Neither adding nor trimming while the data argues with itself.
Defensive. Risk probabilities argue for less exposure than a benchmark weight.
"Right now, Macro looks more similar to November 2025 and not March 2022, which is a key distinction between a Bull Market Correction and a Bear Market."
SPX went on to rise 8% in two weeks. The point is not that the call was right. The point is that it was written down, dated, and available to read while price was still falling.
On MAX: roughly 80% of MAX tags have bounced historically. That is not a guarantee, and it is never a sizing instruction.
Read one
This is what the free half looks like.
When earnings aren't earnings
The SP500 is sitting roughly where it was in the first week of August. Corporate earnings, meanwhile, look extraordinary. Those two facts sit oddly together, and the gap between them is worth a few minutes of your time.
Reported profits are running at a cycle peak - earnings growth around 52% with net profit margins near 17%. Numbers like that are rare enough to examine rather than celebrate.
The last time they looked this extreme was 2021.
Then it was earnings growth of 110% on 13% margins, and the causes were clear enough in hindsight. Record government stimulus. A post-pandemic surge in demand while supply chains were still broken. Companies with unusual pricing power and inflation as cover for using it. None of it repeatable.
What followed is the part people forget. Earnings did not collapse. Forward estimates held up through most of 2022. The decline came from the rate shock instead - a valuation event, not an earnings recession. The profits were real. What changed was what the market was willing to pay for them.
2026's version is less obvious, and more interesting.
The largest technology companies are guiding to roughly $760 billion of capital spending this year, up from $410 billion last year. That cash leaves immediately. The expense does not.
Under ordinary accounting rules - and this is standard practice, not a trick - that spending is capitalized and then written off across the assumed life of the asset. Six years for the AI hardware. Forty for the buildings and the power infrastructure.
So depreciation for that group runs around $211 billion this year against roughly $760 billion of spending. The remaining $549 billion sits on the balance sheet, waiting to be expensed in later years.
That is the classic signature of a big build cycle: profits without the cash to match. The earnings are real. They also understate the economic cost of a buildout that is already happening. The bill arrives between 2027 and 2029, as assets that went into service in 2025 and 2026 work through their schedules.
Whether that turns out to matter depends on one question: whether the returns those companies projected to justify the spending prove accurate. Falling prices for AI services, local resistance to new data centers, and open-source competition all bear on the answer.
It is a fair question. The market has not asked it yet.
None of which is a reason to sell anything. It is a reason not to treat this year's earnings as a permanent run rate, and not to lean a portfolio into the part of the market that most depends on them being one.
That arrives every Monday before the open, at no cost.
Subscribe freeNot a sample written for a website. An actual issue.
The count
Macro is a set of probabilities, recalculated every day as new data arrives. The level of those probabilities is the count, and the count is what the colors mean.
Nobody is claiming to know the next card. The claim is narrower, and more useful to an advisor: you can know when the odds have moved in your favor, and roughly by how much.
Which is why it is published as a weight rather than a signal. Overweight, neutral, underweight. A stance you can hold for weeks, not an instruction to act today.
Not a crystal ball. A count.
The count turned cautious first
Through late 2024 and into February 2025, the reading went underweight while SPX was still printing new highs. The count moved before price did.
Overweight into the panic
At the April 2025 low the reading was overweight. That is the same week as the quote at the top of this page. Not a prediction of the bottom, a statement that the odds had improved.
And it is not infallible
Green appears through a 2022 rally that did not hold. A count improves the odds over many hands. It does not remove the losing ones, and any process that claims otherwise is selling something else.
The odds, not the outcome
No single diamond is a forecast. What matters is the run of them, and whether the count is improving or deteriorating. That is what the letter reports each Monday, including the weeks when the answer is that nothing moved.
This is a record of the process, not a performance claim. The trade-by-trade history, the annual returns, and the backtest are at marketmodel.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Who writes it
The model has been live since 2012, and its SPX signals have been published since 2021. Mike built it.
Georgia Tech, BS and MS in industrial engineering, with an emphasis on probability and statistics. Before this he ran a company for twenty years and sold it to private equity.
The letter is written the same way the model works. Probabilities rather than predictions, and the reasoning shown so an advisor can disagree with it.
Advisors who also want to trade the signals themselves can find the daily service at MarketModel Pro. It is a separate product, and nothing in The Monday Advisor depends on it.
Mike Valletutti
Read this Monday's, free.
The macro summary arrives every Monday before the open, at no cost. The advisor sections are a paid upgrade whenever you want them.